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Dan Gardner

Future Babble

How to Stop Worrying and Love the Unpredictable

Virgin Digital

Date de publication : 2012-08-31



10,99
Guide des formats
Description

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future – everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Pages
320
Collection
n.c
Parution
2012-08-31
Marque
Virgin Digital
EAN papier
9780753522370
EAN EPUB
9780753544525

Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
32
Nombre pages imprimables
32
Taille du fichier
768 Ko
Prix
10,99 €

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